The Recession Fear Has Spread Across Markets (SP500)

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Investment Thesis

The labor market is projected to worsen in the upcoming months, negatively impacting consumer spending and sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions. While the real estate market would exacerbate this, inflation and high interest rates would be detrimental to the global economy

S&P 500 Valuation

S&P 500 Valuation. (Ycharts)

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Data by YCharts

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Data by YCharts

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Data by YCharts

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Data by YCharts
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Data by YCharts

Inverted Yield Curve

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity [T10Y2Y], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;

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Data by YCharts
DXY

DXY (TradingView)

The number of searches for

The number of searches for “recession” has surged recently. (GoogleTrend)

The number of searches for

The number of searches for “nuclear war” has surged recently. (GoogleTrend)

CEO Confidence Index

CEO Confidence Index (The Conference Board)

Personal Saving Rate

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Saving Rate [PSAVERT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;

University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;

University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;

OECD

OECD (OECD)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Consumer Opinion Surveys: Confidence Indicators: Composite Indicators: OECD Indicator for the Euro Area (19 Countries) [CSCICP03EZM665S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Consumer Opinion Surveys: Confidence Indicators: Composite Indicators: OECD Indicator for the Euro Area (19 Countries) [CSCICP03EZM665S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Consumer Opinion Surveys: Confidence Indicators: Composite Indicators: OECD Indicator for China (People's Republic Of) [CSCICP03CNM665S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Consumer Opinion Surveys: Confidence Indicators: Composite Indicators: OECD Indicator for China (People’s Republic Of) [CSCICP03CNM665S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Consumer Opinion Surveys: Confidence Indicators: Composite Indicators: OECD Indicator for the United Kingdom [CSCICP03GBM665S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Consumer Opinion Surveys: Confidence Indicators: Composite Indicators: OECD Indicator for the United Kingdom [CSCICP03GBM665S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;

Fred

Real Personal Income (Fred)

Fred

Inflation Expectation (Fred)

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Data by YCharts
VIX

VIX (TradingView)

S&P500

S&P500 (TradingView)

NDX

NDX (TradingView)

1973-1974 Stock Market Crash.

1973-1974 Stock Market Crash. (TradingView)

2000s Dotcom Bubble

2000s Dotcom Bubble. (TradingView)

Great Recession 2008-2009

Great Recession 2008-2009. (TradingView)

2023 Recession

2023 Recession. (TradingView)

Source